感悟：

      交通拥堵问题世界各地的大小城市普遍存在，作者提出了一个并不高明的收费的方法，从中提出“微小的推动力”这个问题，这就是微小的推动力在解决 复杂的社会问题中妙用，而当你利用它的时候， 不应该告诉人们怎样去适应。 只需要朝正确的方向进行微调。如果你做对了，人们就会接受这种变化。

     不过，我们遇到的最大的问题是，怎么知道它是正确的？

视频地址：

https://www.ted.com/talks/jonas_eliasson_how_to_solve_traffic_jams/transcript

1.Hi. I'm here to talk about congestion, namely road congestion. Road congestion is a pervasive phenomenon. It exists in basically all of the cities all around the world, which is a little bit surprising when you think about it. I mean, think about how different cities are, actually. I mean, you have the typical European cities, with a dense urban core, good public transportation mostly, not a lot of road capacity. But then, on the other hand, you have the American cities. It's moving by itself, okay. Anyway, the American cities: lots of roads dispersed over large areas, almost no public transportation. And then you have the emerging world cities, with a mixed variety of vehicles, mixed land-use patterns, also rather dispersed but often with a very dense urban core. And traffic planners all around the world have tried lots of different measures: dense cities or dispersed cities, lots of roads or lots of public transport or lots of bike lanes or more information, or lots of different things, but nothing seems to work.

嗨，我要在这里谈谈拥堵问题 我指的是道路堵塞。 道路堵塞普遍存在。 世界上几乎所有的城市都存在这个问题 斟酌之下这是挺奇怪的事 我的意思是，想想每个城市实际上有多大的差别。 我是说，既有那些典型的欧洲城市 那里有高密度的中心城区，大部分有良好的公交体系 但道路容量并不充足 另一边厢，还有美式都会 基本上都以自驾车为主，对吧。 不管怎样，在美式城市里 公路系统覆盖大部分地区， 公交系统几乎是不存在的。 此外还有新兴世界的城市 那里各式交通工具并存， 土地利用模式丰富多样，而且分布广泛 但是通常中心区的密度极高。 世界各地的交通规划者都曾尝试 许多不同的方式：集中化城市或是分散化城市， 大量道路或是大量公交， 又或者是大量自行车道或提供更多的信息， 还有许多不同的尝试，可惜看起来都不太见效。

2.Okay. So why can that be? Why is that? Well, think about it this way. Who changed? I mean, the 20 percent of the car drivers that disappeared, surely they must be discontent in a way. And where did they go? If we can understand this, then maybe we can figure out how people can be so happy with this. Well, so we did this huge interview survey with lots of travel services, and tried to figure out who changed, and where did they go? And it turned out that they don't know themselves. (Laughter) For some reason, the car drivers are -- they are confident they actually drive the same way that they used to do. And why is that? It's because that travel patterns are much less stable than you might think. Each day, people make new decisions, and people change and the world changes around them, and each day all of these decisions are sort of nudged ever so slightly away from rush hour car driving in a way that people don't even notice. They're not even aware of this themselves.

OK 这怎么可能呢？是为什么呢？ 想想看，是谁改变了呢？ 我是说，20%的司机没有上路， 他们肯定有点不乐意吧。 他们去哪里了呢？如果我们能了解这点， 那也许就能弄清楚为什么人们对这个满意。 于是我们做了这个大型的问卷调查， 针对各种交通服务，以尝试了解 是谁变了，他们去了哪里？ 结果他们自己也搞不清楚（笑声)。 不知道为什么，司机们 都自信满满地说自己实际上还是如从前一样驾驶。 这是为什么呢？因为驾驶模式 并不像你想象中那么死板。 每天，人们都会做出新的决定，而人们 和他们所处的世界也都在改变，每天 这些决定其实随时都在微调 以避开车流高峰出行， 而人们往往都没有意识到。 哪怕是他们自己。

3.And the other question, who changed their mind? Who changed their opinion, and why? So we did another interview survey, tried to figure out why people changed their mind, and what type of group changed their minds? And after analyzing the answers, it turned out that more than half of them believe that they haven't changed their minds. They're actually confident that they have liked congestion pricing all along. Which means that we are now in a position where we have reduced traffic across this toll cordon with 20 percent, and reduced congestion by enormous numbers, and people aren't even aware that they have changed, and they honestly believe that they have liked this all along.

另外一个问题是，是谁改变了他们的想法呢？ 谁让他们改变了主意，而且为什么会改变呢？ 于是我们做了另外一个调查，试着了解 人们为什么改变主意，哪一些人改变了主意？ 分析结果显示 有超过一半的人认为 自己的想法并没有改变。 他们都自以为本来 就是收取交通拥堵费的支持者。 所以，现在的实际情况是 我们把堵点的交通流量降低了20％， 从而极大减少了拥堵的状况， 而人们竟浑然不知自己的行为已经产生了变化， 而且他们真心诚意认为自己一开始就是支持的。

4.This is the power of nudges when trying to solve complex social problems, and when you do that, you shouldn't try to tell people how to adapt. You should just nudge them in the right direction. And if you do it right, people will actually embrace the change, and if you do it right, people will actually even like it. Thank you. (Applause)

这就是微小的推动力在解决 复杂的社会问题中妙用，而当你利用它的时候， 不应该告诉人们怎样去适应。 只需要朝正确的方向进行微调。 如果你做对了， 人们就会接受这种变化， 如果做好了，人们甚至可能喜欢上它。 谢谢。(掌声)